Systems and Models

Book excerpt: A multitude of complex systems and actors pursuing their own agenda shape the dynamics of our world. Better understanding of their actions and interactions is crucial, and can be achieved by a profound knowledge of systems and their properties, and their representation in models allowing simulation of probable behavior. Drawing on his extensive research and teaching experience in modeling and simulation of a wide range of systems - from engineering to social systems and ecosystems - the author presents the fundamental concepts and approaches for understanding and modeling the complex systems shaping the dynamics of our world. The book applies state space analysis and system dynamics to deal with the dynamic processes of "causal systems," discusses information processing approaches for modeling decision processes of "actors" and "agents," and uses aspects of the coevolutionary development of systems in their environment to deal with normative orientation, ethics, and evaluation of policies and long-term development. The concepts are applied in particular to the issue of sustainable development of human society in an evolving world. The book is complemented by a survey of system topics and of models from many fields, and by an extensive bibliography on the many systems-related subjects covered. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields. Bossel is author of a System Zoo containing over one hundred simulation models of diverse systems.